Scholars said at the 2020 Tsinghua PBCSF Global Finance Forum in Beijing on Saturday that the COVID-19 pandemic is casting a shadow over a possible economic recession in the world, which may be even worse than a decade ago. Prepare for a long and bumpy recovery.

Eric Maskin, a 2007 Nobel Prize winner in economics, said in a CGTN video interview: "I don't think we are at the bottom of the valley." He pointed out that the economy has been hit so hard that It is difficult for financial markets to maintain a high level. When the economy begins to decline, it will adversely affect the real economy.

In his keynote speech, he said that considering the large-scale unemployment and continuing epidemic in the United States, the biggest financial impact has not yet come.

Economists at the forum agreed that the shadow of the pandemic will last for a long time.

Zhu Min, the former deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund and director of the National Institute of Finance at Tsinghua University, said in a keynote speech: "As long as the pandemic continues to spread, the damage to the economy will be even greater."

He said it was unprecedented to see 30 million American unemployed in such a short period of time, and it was difficult to get them back to work. He pointed out that the economic recovery will be a long road because commercial profits will remain low The series is expected to go bankrupt.

Compared with other countries, China has been reopening its doors, but recovery is not easy.

Myskin said that, like other modern economies, China depends heavily on international trade, so the suffering of other countries will also slow down China's recovery.

However, he emphasized that the fear of globalization is misplaced. "If globalization regresses because of this crisis, it will be a terrible shame."

He said that even if the supply chain is completely national, they will still be interrupted in this global pandemic. "In fact, globalization may be an important way to get us out of this crisis."

According to the World Economic Outlook released by the International Monetary Fund in April, due to this pandemic, the global economy is expected to contract sharply by 3% by 2020, much lower than during the 2008-09 global financial crisis.

Unlike the global economic contraction, the International Monetary Fund predicts that China's economy will grow by 1.2% by 2020. Under the current circumstances, Zhu Zhuji said this is a huge achievement.

Michael Spence, the 2001 Nobel Prize winner in economics, said in his keynote speech that if people are not convinced that their security and long-term active monetary policy can be maintained for a long time, the recovery will not be completed.

Liu Guoen, a professor of economics at Peking University, said at the forum: "As the pandemic disrupts the needs of the entire world, we must prepare for a recession with long-term risks and multiple rounds of risks."

Tian Xuan, a professor of finance at Tsinghua University, said the outbreak of the virus also warned companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

Mr. Tian said that sustainable profits and cash are not empty talk about valuation or so-called profit opportunities for SMEs, but the key to SMEs, and they should prepare for a long-term crisis.

News Reference: